Capital Economics Says Existing-Sales Now at a ‘Normal’ Level

Capital Economics Says Existing-Sales Now at a ‘Normal’ Level

01/21/2013 BY: ESTHER CHO

In a commentary from Capital Economics, economist Paul Diggle declared existing home sales are now at a “historically-normal level” relative to population after breaking past the five million mark.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported existing-home sales in November rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million, the highest level since November 2009 when sales reached an annual pace of 5.44 million. In October, the annual rate for existing sales was 4.76 million.

Furthermore, Capital Economics thinks sales will probably rise even higher in December. Based on pending home sales in November, the firm’s calculation shows existing-home sales in December should increase to an annual rate of 5.15 million. NAR is scheduled to release data on existing-home sales on Tuesday, January 22.

Despite the breakthrough, the firm noted, “sales remain dominated by cash buyers and investors, with mortgage-dependent buyers playing a relatively small role in the recovery.”

In order to have a long-term recovery that can be sustained, Capital Economics says that trend will need to change. The firm remains hopeful that it will.

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